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Risk, Uncertainty, and Cognitive Bias

CONCEPTUAL
Personal & Social DevelopmentResponsible Decision-Making|Ages 11—12|ID: mt_JiZ3H90Xg8

Distinguish between risk (decisions with known probabilities) and uncertainty (decisions with unknown outcomes); identify cognitive biases that distort risk assessment: availability heuristic (judging likelihood by how easily examples come to mind), present bias (overvaluing the immediate over the future), optimism bias (underestimating personal risk), and groupthink; understand why adolescent brains are biologically calibrated toward higher risk tolerance; apply a structured decision-making framework to real choices; understand the role of personal values in decisions where facts alone cannot determine the answer

Mastery Evidence

    Assessment Prompt

    “Can [child] explain why taking a risk isn't always irrational — and describe one cognitive bias that causes people to misjudge risk in their everyday decisions, such as why teenagers tend to underestimate certain dangers?”

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