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The Probability Scale

CONCEPTUAL
MathematicsProbability|Ages 11—13|ID: mt_vmQJAtAFuy

Understand probability as a measure on a scale from 0 (impossible) to 1 (certain); use the language of probability including likely, unlikely, certain, and impossible

Mastery Evidence

  • Place everyday events on a 0-to-1 probability scale with justification
  • Explain why a fair six-sided die gives each number a probability of 1/6
  • Distinguish between equally likely outcomes (fair coin) and unequally likely outcomes (biased spinner)

Assessment Prompt

“Can [child] explain that probability goes from 0 (impossible) to 1 (certain), place events on that scale as numbers, and tell you whether a game is fair or not?”

Curriculum Standards2 alignments

7.SP.5Common Core State Standards for Mathematics
Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1

Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around 1/2 indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event.

SP
KS3.Maths.Prob.1The national curriculum in England
Analyse Probability Experiments

record, describe and analyse the frequency of outcomes of simple probability experiments involving randomness, fairness, equally and unequally likely outcomes, using appropriate language and the 0-1 probability scale

Mathematics · Key Stage 3

Prerequisites2

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Unlocks2