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Ordering Likelihoods
CONCEPTUALCompare the likelihood of different events and order them from least to most likely — including situations with unequal outcomes such as a bag with more of one colour than another, or a spinner with sections of different sizes — and explain reasoning using informal language
Mastery Evidence
- Order four or more events from least likely to most likely and justify each placement
- Compare likelihoods when outcomes are not equally likely — e.g. 'Drawing red from a bag with 7 red and 3 blue is more likely than drawing blue'
- Explain why some events are closer to 'even chance' and others are closer to 'certain' or 'impossible'
Assessment Prompt
“If a bag has 8 red counters and 2 blue ones, does [child] understand that picking red is much more likely than picking blue — and can they put different events in order from least to most likely?”
Prerequisites1
- Likelihood LanguagehardAges 9—10
Show full prerequisite tree
- Likelihood Language hard
Comparing and ordering likelihoods requires first knowing the vocabulary of likelihood (certain, likely, unlikely, impossible)
Unlocks1
- Equally Likely OutcomeshardAges 9—10