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Simple Chance Experiments

PROCEDURAL
Mathematics›Probability|Ages 9—10|ID: mt_J4j7d3iAfg

Conduct simple probability experiments — flipping a coin, rolling a die, pulling coloured counters from a bag — record results, and compare experimental outcomes with expected theoretical outcomes

Mastery Evidence

  • Flip a coin 20 times, record heads and tails in a tally chart, and describe what they notice about the results
  • Roll a die 30 times and compare how often each number came up with what they expected
  • Pull counters from a bag, record results, and explain whether the outcomes matched their prediction

Assessment Prompt

“Has [child] ever done an experiment like flipping a coin or rolling a die lots of times, recorded the results in a tally chart, and noticed any patterns in what came up?”

Prerequisites2

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  • Pictograms and tally charts soft

    Recording probability experiment results in tally charts uses the data-recording skills taught in Data & Statistics

    • Pictograms and tally charts (age 6+) hard

      Constructing pictograms, tally charts, and bar charts requires these display vocabulary terms

    • Sorting into categories hard

      Constructing pictograms and tally charts requires classifying and counting objects first

      • Comparing groups: more or fewer soft

        Sorting categories by count benefits from ability to compare quantities

        • Counting objects to 20 soft

          Counting a set helps when comparing groups, but younger children (GB age 4) can compare using matching without formal counting to 20

          • How Many in Total? hard

            Answering 'how many?' requires the cardinality principle

            • One-to-one counting hard

              Cardinality principle builds on one-to-one correspondence — you must count correctly to know the last number tells 'how many'

          • One-to-one counting hard

            Counting objects to answer 'how many?' requires one-to-one correspondence

      • Counting objects to 20 hard

        Counting objects in each category requires being able to count sets of objects

        • How Many in Total? hard

          Answering 'how many?' requires the cardinality principle

          • One-to-one counting hard

            Cardinality principle builds on one-to-one correspondence — you must count correctly to know the last number tells 'how many'

        • One-to-one counting hard

          Counting objects to answer 'how many?' requires one-to-one correspondence

    • Sorting Data into Categories soft

      Data representation formats (pictograms, tally charts) support organising data

      • How Many in Total? soft

        Counting data in categories requires understanding cardinality

        • One-to-one counting hard

          Cardinality principle builds on one-to-one correspondence — you must count correctly to know the last number tells 'how many'

      • Pictograms and tally charts (age 6+) hard

        Organising and representing data requires data, tally, frequency, and category vocabulary

      • Sorting into categories hard

        Organising data in categories builds on classifying and counting objects in categories

        • Comparing groups: more or fewer soft

          Sorting categories by count benefits from ability to compare quantities

          • Counting objects to 20 soft

            Counting a set helps when comparing groups, but younger children (GB age 4) can compare using matching without formal counting to 20

            • How Many in Total? hard

              Answering 'how many?' requires the cardinality principle

              • One-to-one counting hard

                Cardinality principle builds on one-to-one correspondence — you must count correctly to know the last number tells 'how many'

            • One-to-one counting hard

              Counting objects to answer 'how many?' requires one-to-one correspondence

        • Counting objects to 20 hard

          Counting objects in each category requires being able to count sets of objects

          • How Many in Total? hard

            Answering 'how many?' requires the cardinality principle

            • One-to-one counting hard

              Cardinality principle builds on one-to-one correspondence — you must count correctly to know the last number tells 'how many'

          • One-to-one counting hard

            Counting objects to answer 'how many?' requires one-to-one correspondence

  • Likelihood Language hard

    Conducting probability experiments and describing results requires knowing the language used to describe likelihood

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