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Experimental probability

PROCEDURAL
MathematicsProbability|Ages 11—13|ID: mt_sHJqh6UUya

Record, describe, and analyse the frequency of outcomes from probability experiments to develop an understanding of relative frequency as an estimate of probability

Mastery Evidence

  • Conduct a coin-toss experiment, record results in a frequency table, and calculate relative frequencies
  • Compare experimental results with theoretical probability and explain discrepancies
  • Predict that relative frequency approaches theoretical probability as the number of trials increases

Assessment Prompt

“If [child] rolls a die 60 times and records the results, can they compare how often each number came up with what they'd expect in theory — and explain why they might not match perfectly?”

Curriculum Standards3 alignments

7.SP.6Common Core State Standards for Mathematics
Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data

Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability. For example, when rolling a number cube 600 times, predict that a 3 or 6 would be rolled roughly 200 times, but probably not exactly 200 times.

SP
7.SP.7bCommon Core State Standards for Mathematics
Develop a probability model by observing frequencies

Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process. For example, find the approximate probability that a spinning penny will land heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land open-end down. Do the outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based on the observed frequencies?

SP
KS3.Maths.Prob.1The national curriculum in England
Analyse Probability Experiments

record, describe and analyse the frequency of outcomes of simple probability experiments involving randomness, fairness, equally and unequally likely outcomes, using appropriate language and the 0-1 probability scale

Mathematics · Key Stage 3

Prerequisites2

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