Correlation vs Causation
METATwo things happening together doesn't mean one caused the other — recognise the difference between correlation and causation before drawing conclusions
Mastery Evidence
- developmental changes in children's recognition of evidence relevance to causal explanations
- causal learning research
Assessment Prompt
“If [child] noticed that children who eat breakfast tend to do better at school, would they understand that breakfast might not be the cause — there could be another reason both things are true?”
Prerequisites2
- Describing Rules & PatternssoftAges 8—9
- Could there be another explanation?hardAges 7—9
Show full prerequisite tree
- Describing Rules & Patterns soft
Evaluating whether a pattern is truly causal requires the universal generalisation habit — asking whether the rule you think you've spotted actually holds across cases
- Spotting Patterns hard
Generalising a rule requires first being able to spot the recurring pattern that the rule captures
- Connecting New & Old Ideas soft
Spotting patterns across domains is an extension of the habit of connecting new ideas to existing ones
- Thinking Before Starting hard
Making connections between new and old ideas requires the habit of activating prior knowledge first
- Persisting When It's Hard hard
Activating prior knowledge requires the foundational habit of persistent engagement with new material
- Could there be another explanation? hard
Recognising that correlation is not causation requires the habit of generating alternative explanations — the correlation/causation distinction is a specific case of asking 'is there another explanation?'
- Changing Your Mind with Evidence hard
Actively seeking alternative explanations requires first having the habit of not defending your original interpretation against the evidence
- Observation vs Interpretation hard
Being willing to revise a hypothesis requires first distinguishing observation from interpretation — you can only update your interpretation if you recognise it as separate from the data
- Feeling of not understanding soft
Noticing the observation/interpretation distinction requires monitoring your own thinking — the universal comprehension-monitoring habit applied to scientific reasoning
- Asking for Help hard
Noticing confusion and acting on it requires already knowing that asking for help is a valid response to being stuck
- Learning from Mistakes soft
Changing your mind when evidence contradicts your prediction is the science form of the universal error-analysis habit — treating surprises as information rather than failures
- Checking Your Own Work soft
Investigating why something was wrong grows from the earlier habit of checking whether an answer seems right
- Trying a New Approach hard
Error analysis requires the habit of trying different approaches — you need to have tried something before you can analyse what went wrong
- Feeling of not understanding hard
Strategy switching is triggered by noticing the current approach isn't working — requires comprehension monitoring
- Asking for Help hard
Noticing confusion and acting on it requires already knowing that asking for help is a valid response to being stuck
- Planning a Task hard
Switching strategy requires first having made a plan — you can only switch away from something you chose deliberately
- Checking Your Own Work hard
Planning before a task grows from the habit of checking back after finishing — both are self-regulatory bookends
- Understanding Why soft
Asking 'is there another explanation?' is the scientific form of the universal elaborative-interrogation habit
- Teaching It Back hard
Asking 'why does this work?' requires first being able to explain what you know — interrogation builds on explanation
- Explaining Mathematical Reasoning soft
The universal self-explanation habit (LtL 7-8) builds on the maths-specific practice of explaining reasoning when prompted (MT 6-7)
- Showing Your Working hard
Age 6-7 explaining with diagrams/logic builds on age 5-6 showing and telling with objects
- Numbers up to 10 into pairs soft
Explaining part-part-whole decompositions exercises showing and telling
- Addition as combining or putting together two hard
Decomposing numbers into pairs requires understanding addition as combining
- How Many in Total? hard
Understanding addition as combining groups requires knowing numbers represent quantities (cardinality)
- One-to-one counting hard
Cardinality principle builds on one-to-one correspondence — you must count correctly to know the last number tells 'how many'
- Number bonds to 9 soft
Explaining how to find number bonds to 10 exercises showing thinking with objects
- Numbers up to 10 into pairs hard
Making 10 is a specific application of decomposing numbers into pairs
- Addition as combining or putting together two hard
Decomposing numbers into pairs requires understanding addition as combining
- How Many in Total? hard
Understanding addition as combining groups requires knowing numbers represent quantities (cardinality)
- One-to-one counting hard
Cardinality principle builds on one-to-one correspondence — you must count correctly to know the last number tells 'how many'
- Listening and responding soft
Explaining mathematical reasoning orally requires basic listening and responding skills
- What the equals sign means soft
Determining whether equations are true/false exercises evaluating and justifying
- Reading +, −, and = symbols hard
Deep understanding of = requires already being able to read and write number sentences
- Reading and writing numbers to 20 hard
Writing number sentences requires reading and writing numerals
- How Many in Total? hard
Reading/writing numerals 0–20 requires understanding that numerals represent quantities (cardinality)
- One-to-one counting hard
Cardinality principle builds on one-to-one correspondence — you must count correctly to know the last number tells 'how many'
- Writing digits 0-9 hard
Writing numerals requires the motor skill of forming digits 0-9 (taught in English handwriting)
- Addition as combining or putting together two hard
Reading/writing the + symbol requires understanding what addition means
- How Many in Total? hard
Understanding addition as combining groups requires knowing numbers represent quantities (cardinality)
- One-to-one counting hard
Cardinality principle builds on one-to-one correspondence — you must count correctly to know the last number tells 'how many'
- Subtraction as taking away or separating hard
Reading/writing the − symbol requires understanding what subtraction means
- How Many in Total? hard
Understanding subtraction as taking away requires knowing numbers represent quantities (cardinality)
- One-to-one counting hard
Cardinality principle builds on one-to-one correspondence — you must count correctly to know the last number tells 'how many'
- Addition as combining or putting together two hard
Understanding commutativity of addition requires understanding addition
- How Many in Total? hard
Understanding addition as combining groups requires knowing numbers represent quantities (cardinality)
- One-to-one counting hard
Cardinality principle builds on one-to-one correspondence — you must count correctly to know the last number tells 'how many'
- Thinking Before Starting hard
Explaining in your own words requires connecting new learning to existing knowledge already held in mind
- Persisting When It's Hard hard
Activating prior knowledge requires the foundational habit of persistent engagement with new material
Unlocks2
- Science Can Be RevisedhardAges 9—11
- Evidence Supporting IdeassoftAges 9—11